BTC Risk-Off Signal Remains High Below $100K

Bitcoin (BTC) may be holding above $90,000, but data implied that its price is still flashing a significant risk-off signal. CryptoQuant’s multi-metric risk-off oscillator remained near the “High-Risk” zone, a level that historically precedes corrections and diminishes the probability of a sustained bullish trend.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s risk-off signal was positioned near “High-Risk” territory, which has previously indicated a bearish period.

• BTC’s Profit–Loss sentiment has hit a rare -3 extreme, signalling a structural correction.

• BTC’s -32% drawdown placed it between a correction and capitulation zone, which may prolong the decline between $90,000 and $80,000.

Bitcoin is structurally weak near $90,000

CryptoQuant’s Risk-Off model incorporates six metrics — downside volatility, upside volatility, exchange inflows, funding rates, futures open interest, and market cap behavior — to produce a data-driven assessment of market fragility. With the oscillator near 60 or the High-Risk zone, correction risk remains elevated.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr also noted that the profit/loss score has dropped to -3, reflecting an extreme concentration of unprofitable UTXOs. Historically, this level aligned with bearish regimes and extended cooling phases. The current -32% drawdown exceeded normal cycle pullbacks (-20–25%) but remains above capitulation thresholds (-50% to -70%), placing Bitcoin in a vulnerable “intermediate zone.”

Adler said that as long as macroeconomic conditions and onchain profitability fail to improve, the probability of continued downside remains high, despite the price stabilizing near $90,000.

At this stage, onchain data from Glassnode offered a small silver lining. The analytics platform noted that Bitcoin’s latest drawdown triggered the largest spike in realized losses since the FTX collapse in 2022, overwhelmingly driven by short-term holders (STHs).

However, long-term holder (LTH) losses remain comparatively muted, a dynamic that historically reflects core holder resilience and has sometimes cushioned deeper capitulation in past cycles. 

Related: Bitcoin price action, investor sentiment point to bullish December

$100,000 Bitcoin is a battle between the momentum and the trend 

One CryptoQuant analyst described Bitcoin’s approach to $100,000 as a “psychological turning point.” While a breakout could trigger renewed momentum, possibly helped by a Federal Reserve interest rate cut on Dec. 10, major round numbers often produce volatility and failed attempts.

The growth rate difference (Market Cap vs. Realized Cap) remained at -0.00095, indicating that the market cap is shrinking faster than the realized cap. With BTC currently at $91,000, the analyst leaned more toward structural weakness rather than trend expansion.

Bitcoin futures trader, Byzantine General, also identified shaky price action for BTC, stating, 

“$BTC is struggling a bit here at this key resistance level. If it breaks through, it could fly over 100,000 very quickly, but if it actually rejects here, then we’re probably stuck in this 92,000- 82,000 range for a while.”

Related: Bitcoin accumulation trends strengthen as realized losses near $5.8B

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.