Can Ethereum Reclaim $4,500 in October?

Key takeaways:

• Ether’s rebound from a key support confluence puts $4,500 back within reach.

• MVRV bands show ETH price holding above support, and eyeing a rally to $5,000.

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has rebounded by more than 15% two weeks after plunging to its two-month low of $3,435. Multiple indicators now hint that ETH may extend its recovery toward $4,500 by the end of October.

ETH price bull flag bounce in play

Ethereum’s rebound appears to be forming within a bull flag pattern, a structure that often signals the continuation of a prevailing uptrend following a brief consolidation.

In ETH’s case, the flag is represented by a descending parallel channel, developing after the sharp rally from its April low near $2,500 to the August high around $4,950, as shown below.

The latest bounce from the channel’s lower boundary near $3,500 coincides with support from the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave), a level that has historically attracted dip buyers during bull markets.

ETH could target a breakout toward the channel’s upper boundary, around the $4,450-4,500 area in October, if the recovery momentum sustains.

The interim upside target aligns with analyst FOUR’s double bottom technical setup, which shows ETH’s price to hit the structure’s neckline resistance at $4,750 in the coming days.

Trader Luca further anticipated ETH rallying toward $4,500 (the red area in the chart below), given it has held above its “weekly bull market support band,” represented via the yellow area.

Meanwhile, a breakout above the area could send the price toward the bull flag target above $5,200, a potential record high, by November.

A breakdown below the support confluence, the bull flag’s lower boundary and the 200-day EMA support (the blue wave) around $3,550, could invalidate the pattern, exposing ETH to deeper retracements toward $3,000-3,200.

Ethereum MVRV doubles down on $4,500 target

Ethereum’s MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands show that its recent pullback has been stabilizing near the mean band around $3,900, a level that has historically served as a springboard for new rallies.

Related: BitMine accumulates $1.5B in Ether since crash despite Lee’s treasury bubble fears

Each time ETH has bounced off this midpoint, including in early 2021, mid-2023, and early 2024, it has advanced toward the +1σ (standard deviation) band, currently hovering near $5,000.

This structure suggests ETH remains in the “healthy correction” phase of its ongoing bull cycle, rather than signaling exhaustion. A push toward the $4,500–$5,000 zone by late October appears statistically probable if the mean level continues to hold as support.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.