Could More Geopolitical Tension Drive BTC Back to Six Figures? 

Bitcoin has hit a three-week high as geopolitical tensions escalate once again and analysts predict more gains to come if history rhymes. 

BTC tapped $93,000 during Monday morning in Asia following a strike by the United States on Venezuela over the weekend.

Analysts are now looking for further potential gains and the possibility of a return to six-figure Bitcoin prices. Michael Nadeau from The DeFi Report drew comparisons between the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, when BTC climbed 22% in the weeks that followed.

“In the current environment, I’ve been anticipating a move for BTC back up to the 50-week moving average around $101,700,” he said. “Now we have a catalyst. The key question is whether that level can hold if it is, in fact, revisited.”

A Bear Market Bounce

What the analyst didn’t mention was the fact that 2022 was a bear market year that saw BTC decline 77% from its all-time high. A similar bear market scenario in 2026 could see the asset slump to $30,000.

Trader Aaron Dishner echoed the sentiment, stating that crypto markets would bounce in early January as many traders likely closed positions before the end of 2025 for tax purposes, and would buy back aggressively at the start of 2026.

“But my target for BTC is still $100k before the next leg down, and I imagine a LOT of you are wondering WHY!? Well, this happens at the start of every past bear market – in 2022, 2018, and 2015. This time is no different to me.”

Bitcoin entrepreneur Joe Consorti was also convinced of a return to six figures first. BTC broke back above the 50-day moving average for the first time since October, testing levels not seen since early December, he said.

“Sell pressure may be nearing exhaustion. Need to reclaim and hold the 50-week MA at $101k.”

BTC is waking up in the new year, already up 6.24%.

Broke back above the 50-day moving average for the first time since October. Testing levels not seen since early December.

Sell pressure may be nearing exhaustion.

Need to reclaim and hold the 50-week MA at $101k. https://t.co/PlgD2IbnWX pic.twitter.com/EJVlVPLN6p

— Joe Consorti (@JoeConsorti) January 5, 2026

Bitcoin Moves Higher

BTC tapped $93,000 twice over the past few hours, but failed to break above, falling back to $92,500 at the time of writing. The asset is now moving towards the upper band of a six-week sideways channel and needs to clear resistance above $94,000 to break out of it.

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“There is strength beneath this overall bottoming move higher,” said analyst ‘Sykodelic’ who added, “We had the double buy signal on the relative strength two days ago.”