Ethereum Spot ETFs Odds At A Pessimistic 25%: Bloomberg Analyst

Analysts’ optimism on the likelihood of Ethereum Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) approval in May is constantly waning, as the once optimistic senior Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas has lowered his prediction for the products being approved to a mere 25%.

Ethereum Spot ETFs Odds Continues To Drop

Eric Balchunas, who noted that his chances of having an Ethereum ETF approved in May by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are still a bleak 25%, expressed his pessimism in an X post. According to Balchunas, he would probably go lower if he could do so, suggesting how uncertain the analyst is towards the products.

The Bloomberg expert’s insights coincide with his colleague James Seyffart’s post regarding Bitwise Invest’s latest Ethereum ETF filling. On Thursday, Bitwise Invest registered shares of its ETH ETF with the SEC using a Form S-1 registration statement, which is its first stage of applying for the exchange products.

A 19b-4 form, announcing the firm’s intention to list the ETF on a stock exchange, was filed after this one. Bitwise plans to issue shares of the ETH investment vehicle on NYSE Arca, according to the 19b-4 modification filing that was submitted to the SEC.

Both filings preceded amid rumors that the SEC was attempting to classify ETH as a security under its regulatory scope, raising concerns about future listings of the ETH ETFs. Bitwise Invest is the latest asset company to join the ETH ETF race, indicating the firm’s confidence about an approval by the May deadline.

Even though some in the cryptocurrency world welcomed this move as a hint that regulations would soon approve it, experts like Eric Balchunas are still not convinced, warning that the likelihood is still slim.

Balchunas stated that he has been getting tagged in tweets about Bitwise’s latest filing, the ETH Correlation study, and other ETH ETF hopium. Despite his high regard for the developments, he still believes that the odds for approval are very low.

Furthermore, with seven weeks remaining until the May deadline, Balchunas noted that the SEC’s radio silence is still depressing. “Again, personally I want them to approve but I also want to get the call right so we will be a perfect 4 for 4 in crypto ETF predictions,” he added.

New Correlation As Part Of Bitwise’s ETH ETF Filing

It is worth noting that Bitwise’s recent spot Ethereum ETF filing includes the release of a new correlation analysis. This marks the first ETH correlation analysis to imitate the precise assessment process of Bitcoin (BTC) by the SEC, providing a promising outcome.

Several studies were conducted by Bitwise in order to mirror the SEC’s evaluation of Bitcoin specifically. These include the same 2.5-year sample period, exact intraday correlation intervals, the same correlation statistic, and others.

For hourly, one-minute, and five-minute correlations, the differences in correlation values across the whole sample period are limited to 0.2%, 8%, and 5%, respectively.

Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com